DreamLeague Season 20 · BO5
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 2:3series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Pugnasignature
Save- · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 24 games
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 23 games
Tiny
gpK~ · 23 games
Rubicksignature
Save- · 22 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 20 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 17 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 56 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 37 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 35 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 33 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 31 game
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 31 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 29 games
Doomsignature
Ace · 28 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
701 picks · 480 bans
Techies
584 picks · 634 bans
Doom
566 picks · 1107 bans
Disruptor
544 picks · 501 bans
Beastmaster
531 picks · 1230 bans
Ember Spirit
477 picks · 1046 bans
Enchantress
463 picks · 679 bans
Pangolier
460 picks · 920 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total70% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:23
BETBOOM TEAM 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNightfall
Dragon KnightQuinn
Legion CommanderPure~
BeastmasterAce
Ember SpiritgpK~
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
EnchantressSave-
TechiestOfu
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
UndyingSeleri
Game 2prediction missed25:7
BETBOOM TEAM 37%Gaimin Gladiators 63%
The model gave 63% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautNightfall
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
SnapfiregpK~
BeastmasterAce
TidehunterPure~
LeshracQuinn
EnchantressSave-
TechiestOfu
LichTORONTOTOKYO
UndyingSeleri
Game 3prediction missed26:2
BETBOOM TEAM 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerNightfall
Shadow Fienddyrachyo
Legion CommanderPure~
Dragon KnightQuinn
Storm SpiritgpK~
UnderlordAce
PugnaSave-
MiranatOfu
LichTORONTOTOKYO
UndyingSeleri
Game 4prediction correct12:26
BETBOOM TEAM 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNightfall
LycanAce
WindrangergpK~
Terrorbladedyrachyo
DoomPure~
Storm SpiritQuinn
RubickSave-
TechiestOfu
Spirit BreakerTORONTOTOKYO
UndyingSeleri
Game 5prediction correct13:15
BETBOOM TEAM 41%Gaimin Gladiators 59%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomPure~
Medusadyrachyo
BloodseekerNightfall
BroodmotherAce
Ember SpiritgpK~
HuskarQuinn
TechiesSave-
PugnatOfu
LichTORONTOTOKYO
UndyingSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 70%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5