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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 13 games
77%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 12 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Rubick
Rubick
Roddgeee · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Force · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 9 games
44%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Skem · 8 games
50%

Polaris Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Bok · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 14 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 10 games
60%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
80%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
701 picks · 481 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
582 picks · 631 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
566 picks · 1104 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 501 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
531 picks · 1227 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
477 picks · 1044 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
458 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:7
Geek Fam 56%Polaris Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 30:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
52% · 112 games42% · 34 games
EnigmaEnryu
Enigma
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
52% · 89 games45% · 83 games
Monkey KingAkashi
Monkey King
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
48% · 128 games47% · 163 games
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaSkem
59% · 152 games34% · 7 games
GrimstrokeBoomy
Grimstroke
54% · 194 games
Techiescml
Techies
Game 2prediction correct37:18
Geek Fam 55%Polaris Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 27:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
54% · 110 games43% · 132 games
TerrorbladeAkashi
Terrorblade
Axe
AxeForce
44% · 31 game56% · 145 games
Queen of PainMac
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderSkem
49% · 292 games49% · 66 games
UnderlordEnryu
Underlord
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageNARMAN
45% · 158 games56% · 215 games
Techiescml
Techies
53% · 33 games
EarthshakerBoomy
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 58%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2