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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 25 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 21 game
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 19 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 15 games
60%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 56 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 36 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 34 games
76%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 33 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 31 game
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 30 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 29 games
69%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 28 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
701 picks · 481 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
582 picks · 631 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
566 picks · 1104 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 501 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
531 picks · 1227 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
477 picks · 1044 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
458 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total69% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:11
LGD Gaming 40%Gaimin Gladiators 60%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
59% · 86 games53% · 142 games
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
53% · 126 games46% · 86 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
48% · 91 game54% · 82 games
Queen of PainQuinn
Queen of Pain
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
58% · 218 games43% · 37 games
LiontOfu
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
42% · 74 games43% · 248 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Game 2prediction correct20:17
LGD Gaming 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
46% · 102 games50% · 126 games
Morphlingdyrachyo
Morphling
Broodmother
Broodmothershiro
46% · 107 games57% · 43 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Chen
Cheny`
54% · 52 games46% · 127 games
Primal BeastQuinn
Primal Beast
Axe
Axeniu
50% · 33 games53% · 22 games
ClinkztOfu
Clinkz
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
50% · 106 games54% · 82 games
Spirit BreakerSeleri
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction correct19:24
LGD Gaming 40%Gaimin Gladiators 60%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautshiro
46% · 87 games48% · 163 games
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
47% · 255 games51% · 333 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Broodmother
Broodmotherniu
45% · 176 games58% · 96 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
51% · 394 games49% · 215 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Oracle
Oracley`
51% · 118 games53% · 223 games
BatridertOfu
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 69%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3