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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Limitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Supernova

Rubick
Rubick
sheep · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
sheep · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
sheep · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
sheep · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
sheep · 3 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sheep · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sheep · 2 games
0%

Limit

Tusk
Tusk
Yds · 14 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
cxk · 8 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
Victoria · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 6 games
83%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Echo · 4 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Chosenone · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
出省 · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
698 picks · 483 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
579 picks · 627 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1102 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 502 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1223 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
477 picks · 1044 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
464 picks · 679 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
458 picks · 916 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 15%
Hero pool strength53% Supernova
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
Supernova 71%Limit 29%
The model gave 71% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 21:36.
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Supernova 71%Limit 29%
The model gave 71% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 23:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 71%
Series resultSupernova 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2