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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 28 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 27 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 25 games
48%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Immersion · 20 games
60%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 19 games
68%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 19 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 18 games
72%

HULIGANI

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 45 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 33 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
559 picks · 455 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
489 picks · 381 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 251 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 536 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 377 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
369 picks · 894 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
367 picks · 923 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
363 picks · 820 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% HULIGANI
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total59% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
Power Rangers 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTA2000
55% · 113 games50% · 200 games
Muertassnovv1
Muerta
Underlord
UnderlordAlberkaaa
47% · 252 games49% · 100 games
ViperMirage
Viper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
54% · 370 games46% · 178 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkImmersion
55% · 404 games52% · 276 games
Ringmastersayuw
Ringmaster
Silencer
SilencerHduo
41% · 108 games50% · 493 games
TuskRESPECT
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed43:12
Power Rangers 46%HULIGANI 54%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTA2000
55% · 127 games44% · 229 games
Queen of PainMirage
Queen of Pain
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
47% · 451 game51% · 171 game
Monkey Kingssnovv1
Monkey King
Slardar
SlardarAlberkaaa
55% · 359 games44% · 180 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHduo
54% · 83 games46% · 242 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Windranger
WindrangerImmersion
58% · 268 games47% · 466 games
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed30:35
Power Rangers 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 48:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTA2000
52% · 144 games51% · 78 games
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Faceless Void
Bristleback
BristlebackAlberkaaa
52% · 138 games46% · 158 games
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Dawnbreaker
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
47% · 248 games51% · 260 games
SlardarMirage
Slardar
Chen
ChenHduo
60% · 92 games42% · 43 games
GrimstrokeRESPECT
Grimstroke
Techies
TechiesImmersion
41% · 42 games56% · 125 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 59%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3