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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
noMERCYloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
los moticucoswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

noMERCY

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
555k · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
drakeel · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Zxca · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
555k · 7 games
71%
Visage
Visagesignature
drakeel · 7 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
555k · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Jeimari · 6 games
67%

los moticucos

Rubick
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 9 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Accel · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Accel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Alone · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 5 games
80%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
sl4d1n- · 5 games
60%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Accel · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
701 picks · 483 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
578 picks · 625 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1102 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
553 picks · 503 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
535 picks · 1225 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
475 picks · 1044 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
464 picks · 680 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% los moticucos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% los moticucos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:20
noMERCY 40%los moticucos 60%
The model gave 60% on los moticucos — the game was taken by los moticucos in 26:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMnz
58% · 165 games46% · 54 games
LunaJP
Luna
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMr.Jeans
47% · 59 games49% · 195 games
TimbersawAlone
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomBenjaz
50% · 235 games53% · 324 games
BeastmasterOscar
Beastmaster
Techies
TechiesElmisho
52% · 196 games42% · 52 games
Lionsl4d1n-
Lion
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerYadomi
49% · 102 games49% · 132 games
Shadow DemonAccel
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct30:31
noMERCY 40%los moticucos 60%
The model gave 60% on los moticucos — the game was taken by los moticucos in 50:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMnz
55% · 143 games61% · 133 games
MedusaJP
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMr.Jeans
47% · 177 games53% · 134 games
BroodmotherOscar
Broodmother
Visage
VisageBenjaz
42% · 54 games54% · 170 games
EarthshakerAlone
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
50% · 104 games48% · 161 game
Spirit BreakerAccel
Spirit Breaker
Undying
UndyingYadomi
44% · 172 games42% · 52 games
Lionsl4d1n-
Lion
Model check result
Model favoritelos moticucos · 68%
Series resultlos moticucos 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2