Riyadh Masters 2023 MENA Qualifier · BO5
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 3:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Team Secret MEloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 28 games
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 23 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 16 games
Techiessignature
OmaR · 16 games
Tiny
No!ob · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 15 games
Team Secret ME
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
697 picks · 486 bans
Techies
574 picks · 619 bans
Doom
564 picks · 1099 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 505 bans
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1225 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1042 bans
Enchantress
462 picks · 675 bans
Pangolier
457 picks · 916 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:11
PSG Quest 79%Team Secret ME 21%
The model gave 79% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 30:56.
Game 2prediction correct40:16
PSG Quest 79%Team Secret ME 21%
The model gave 79% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 37:26.
Game 3prediction correct29:9
PSG Quest 79%Team Secret ME 21%
The model gave 79% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:28.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 79%
Series resultPSG Quest 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3