Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionEex-Monaspaloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 16 games
Disruptor
GH · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 12 games
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
Shadow Demon
GH · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
696 picks · 487 bans
Techies
566 picks · 613 bans
Doom
565 picks · 1095 bans
Disruptor
557 picks · 501 bans
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1218 bans
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1035 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 667 bans
Pangolier
456 picks · 913 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% ex-Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% ex-Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:17
ex-Monaspa 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:07.
Game 2prediction missed44:13
ex-Monaspa 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 56:25.
Game 3prediction missed10:38
ex-Monaspa 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Monaspa · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3