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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
los moticucoswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Undying
Undyingsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 10 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 6 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
payk · 4 games
75%

los moticucos

Rubick
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 9 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Accel · 8 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
sl4d1n- · 5 games
60%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Accel · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Oscar · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Alone · 4 games
75%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Accel · 4 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Alone · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
700 picks · 491 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1094 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 501 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
561 picks · 609 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1218 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1038 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 670 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
458 picks · 914 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:31
Lava 56%los moticucos 44%
The model gave 56% on Lava — the game was taken by los moticucos in 1:10:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpayk
48% · 178 games51% · 95 games
UrsaJP
Ursa
Lycan
LycanHermit
55% · 68 games56% · 69 games
Keeper of the LightAlone
Keeper of the Light
Enchantress
EnchantressJimmyCoff666
47% · 180 games51% · 75 games
Spirit Breakersl4d1n-
Spirit Breaker
47% · 66 games
TidehunterOscar
Tidehunter
47% · 121 game
TechiesAccel
Techies
Game 2prediction correct40:28
Lava 56%los moticucos 44%
The model gave 56% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 51:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpayk
53% · 224 games57% · 71 game
MedusaJP
Medusa
Lycan
LycanHermit
49% · 115 games56% · 73 games
LinaAlone
Lina
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJimmyCoff666
43% · 118 games55% · 114 games
Primal BeastOscar
Primal Beast
43% · 41 game
Dark Willowsl4d1n-
Dark Willow
46% · 158 games
UndyingAccel
Undying
Game 3prediction missed7:15
Lava 56%los moticucos 44%
The model gave 56% on Lava — the game was taken by los moticucos in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautpayk
49% · 108 games56% · 59 games
MedusaJP
Medusa
Broodmother
BroodmotherHermit
40% · 93 games56% · 89 games
TimbersawAlone
Timbersaw
Disruptor
DisruptorJimmyCoff666
51% · 262 games50% · 147 games
BeastmasterOscar
Beastmaster
54% · 124 games
BatriderAccel
Batrider
48% · 44 games
Shadow Demonsl4d1n-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 62%
Series resultlos moticucos 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3