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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 23 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
81%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 21 game
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 14 games
64%

Team Aster

Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 23 games
48%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 23 games
30%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
701 picks · 495 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 503 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1095 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
557 picks · 605 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1218 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1039 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
460 picks · 668 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
460 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total78% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:24
LGD Gaming 67%Team Aster 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 56:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
49% · 21 game52% · 126 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
54% · 150 games49% · 48 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Axe
Axeniu
45% · 30 games37% · 40 games
Winter WyvernSumaiL
Winter Wyvern
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
46% · 28 games49% · 88 games
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
Spirit Breaker
Techies
TechiespLAnet
55% · 193 games50% · 120 games
UndyingFantasy
Undying
Game 2prediction correct27:12
LGD Gaming 67%Team Aster 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
57% · 79 games45% · 310 games
TerrorbladeMonet
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
48% · 239 games51% · 138 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
48% · 292 games48% · 255 games
EnigmaXxs
Enigma
Undying
Undyingy`
50% · 241 game53% · 290 games
TechiesBoBoKa
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorpLAnet
50% · 197 games53% · 55 games
Elder TitanFantasy
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 78%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2