?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 54 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 30 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 27 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 25 games
72%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Mira · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 22 games
64%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 24 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 20 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 19 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
703 picks · 494 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 504 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
563 picks · 1094 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
553 picks · 604 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
536 picks · 1215 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1037 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
460 picks · 918 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 665 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:44
Team Spirit 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:01:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYatoro
51% · 142 games54% · 258 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
48% · 189 games47% · 173 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
51% · 194 games52% · 186 games
Bloodseeker23savage
Bloodseeker
Rubick
RubickMira
44% · 396 games52% · 378 games
BatriderQ
Batrider
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
47% · 241 game52% · 167 games
PugnaOli
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed17:23
Team Spirit 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
46% · 158 games49% · 270 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
57% · 122 games52% · 128 games
Dark SeerJabz
Dark Seer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
50% · 174 games49% · 442 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickMira
47% · 568 games49% · 383 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
46% · 254 games60% · 53 games
Elder TitanOli
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2