Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Rubick
Daze · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ri4man · 10 games
Mirana
Riddys · 10 games
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 10 games
Magnussignature
pma · 8 games
Tiny
Ri4man · 8 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
Void Spirit
Ri4man · 7 games
Matreshka Team
Rubick
Lagoona · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Lagoona · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 6 games
Techiesoften banned
Lagoona · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 5 games
Void Spirit
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
Windrangeroften banned
Retsu · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
705 picks · 495 bans
Disruptor
569 picks · 506 bans
Doom
563 picks · 1095 bans
Techies
549 picks · 604 bans
Beastmaster
536 picks · 1219 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1040 bans
Pangolier
461 picks · 920 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 664 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:26
Natus Vincere Junior 50%Matreshka Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlinggotthejuice
TerrorbladeRetsu
Broodmotherpma
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
Storm SpiritRi4man
Dark SeermeLes
TechiesDaze
BatriderLagoona
OracleRiddys
Spirit Breakerdark
Game 2prediction missed19:28
Natus Vincere Junior 53%Matreshka Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 39:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautgotthejuice
UrsaRetsu
Ember SpiritRi4man
Dark SeermeLes
Magnuspma
WindrangerNattyNarwhal
BatriderDaze
Techiesdark
MiranaRiddys
Primal BeastLagoona
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 52%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2