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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Breeki Cheekiloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Breeki Cheeki

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 9 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 7 games
43%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
спортик · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muertasignature
DarkLord^ · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ChodΣX · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
спортик · 5 games
60%
Chen
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
60%

HULIGANI

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 45 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 33 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
569 picks · 475 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 393 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 254 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
485 picks · 535 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
448 picks · 388 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
378 picks · 948 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
375 picks · 907 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
373 picks · 225 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:19
Breeki Cheeki 37%HULIGANI 63%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidDarkLord^
53% · 21 game54% · 69 games
Slarkssnovv1
Slark
Bristleback
BristlebackChodΣX
52% · 240 games47% · 320 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritспортик
50% · 362 games54% · 115 games
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Dawnbreaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightOneJey
43% · 89 games55% · 208 games
BatriderRESPECT
Batrider
Mirana
Miranaasdekor_r
47% · 39 games44% · 39 games
Techiessayuw
Techies
Game 2prediction correct
Breeki Cheeki 26%HULIGANI 74%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 74%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2