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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 9 games
89%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 7 games
86%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
MiLAN · 6 games
83%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
swedenstrong · 5 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
OwnedMe · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
swedenstrong · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
25%

Into The Breach

Rubick
Rubick
RESPECT · 17 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
36%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
709 picks · 504 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
573 picks · 508 bans
53%
Doom
Doom
562 picks · 1092 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
543 picks · 1227 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
543 picks · 596 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1044 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
463 picks · 926 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
457 picks · 659 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 48%
Hero pool strength61% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:34
Level UP 67%Into The Breach 33%
The model gave 67% on Level UP — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckLorenof
53% · 219 games50% · 167 games
Monkey KingNande
Monkey King
Medusa
MedusaDaxak
64% · 97 games48% · 218 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterOwnedMe
49% · 102 games46% · 75 games
MarsXibbe
Mars
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
47% · 51 game48% · 167 games
UndyingRESPECT
Undying
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMiLAN
48% · 158 games
Game 2prediction missed14:21
Level UP 67%Into The Breach 33%
The model gave 67% on Level UP — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
44% · 281 game49% · 227 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerDaxak
53% · 79 games53% · 304 games
BatriderSupream^
Batrider
Doom
DoomOwnedMe
51% · 201 game57% · 109 games
TidehunterXibbe
Tidehunter
Pugna
Pugnaswedenstrong
52% · 123 games48% · 262 games
TechiesRESPECT
Techies
Silencer
SilencerMiLAN
44% · 218 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 76%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2