?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Old Gloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 14 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
44%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
GH · 9 games
22%

Old G

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 16 games
50%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 14 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
swedenstrong · 13 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
711 picks · 510 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
577 picks · 509 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
563 picks · 1095 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
545 picks · 1231 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
543 picks · 596 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1047 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
466 picks · 926 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 661 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
Nigma Galaxy 51%Old G 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 20:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
46% · 118 games64% · 47 games
SvenNo[o]ne
Sven
Axe
AxeMinD_ContRoL
44% · 22 games49% · 61 game
VenomancerCeb
Venomancer
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
44% · 139 games60% · 136 games
TimbersawTopson
Timbersaw
Lion
LionGH
22% · 5 games50% · 40 games
Bounty HunterAramis
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct
Nigma Galaxy 55%Old G 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2