Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Qhaliloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lavawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Qhali
Snapfire
MonHty · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 14 games
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 13 games
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 9 games
Treant Protector
Luis · 9 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
Lina
Cucahook · 7 games
Lava
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 11 games
Undyingsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 10 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 6 games
Silencer
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
719 picks · 520 bans
Disruptor
585 picks · 512 bans
Doom
562 picks · 1093 bans
Beastmaster
552 picks · 1237 bans
Techies
538 picks · 592 bans
Ember Spirit
469 picks · 1055 bans
Pangolier
468 picks · 932 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 661 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Lava
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:27
Qhali 32%Lava 68%
The model gave 68% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverCucahook
Medusapayk
Ember SpiritRobo-Z
BroodmotherHermit
Keeper of the LightMonHty
UndyingJimmyCoff666
Spirit Breaker555k
Game 2prediction correct5:23
Qhali 35%Lava 65%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 30:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCucahook
Windrangerpayk
Void SpiritRobo-Z
LycanHermit
TechiesMonHty
UndyingJimmyCoff666
Treant Protector555k
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 80%
Series resultLava 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2