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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
noMERCYwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
x5 Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

noMERCY

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
555k · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
Zxca · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
drakeel · 7 games
29%
Visage
Visagesignature
drakeel · 7 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
555k · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Jeimari · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
555k · 5 games
60%

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 7 games
57%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
Wij · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
FCR · 5 games
20%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Benny · 5 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tavo · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
722 picks · 521 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
588 picks · 514 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
561 picks · 1093 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
552 picks · 1240 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
538 picks · 592 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
469 picks · 1055 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
469 picks · 932 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 659 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% x5 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:23
noMERCY 42%x5 Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMnz
53% · 83 games59% · 146 games
MedusaBenny
Medusa
Snapfire
SnapfireMr.Jeans
40% · 218 games45% · 219 games
TimbersawTavo
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBenjaz
50% · 236 games55% · 358 games
ClockwerkWij
Clockwerk
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageElmisho
44% · 114 games
Lich
LichYadomi
48% · 72 games
Game 2prediction missed36:13
noMERCY 46%x5 Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by noMERCY in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMnz
62% · 88 games43% · 116 games
UrsaBenny
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMr.Jeans
57% · 110 games48% · 252 games
DoomTavo
Doom
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerElmisho
49% · 82 games44% · 120 games
Shadow DemonWij
Shadow Demon
Tidehunter
TidehunterBenjaz
51% · 55 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYadomi
56% · 153 games
Game 3prediction missed35:16
noMERCY 41%x5 Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by noMERCY in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMnz
47% · 40 games51% · 151 game
Templar AssassinBenny
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMr.Jeans
45% · 97 games50% · 225 games
EnigmaTavo
Enigma
Tidehunter
TidehunterBenjaz
46% · 35 games47% · 38 games
Witch DoctorWij
Witch Doctor
Mirana
MiranaElmisho
55% · 105 games
Undying
UndyingYadomi
54% · 137 games
Model check result
Model favoritex5 Gaming · 63%
Series resultnoMERCY 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3