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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 55 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 26 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 25 games
72%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Mira · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 22 games
64%

Team Aster

Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 23 games
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 22 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 21 game
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 21 game
33%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
723 picks · 521 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
588 picks · 514 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
561 picks · 1091 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
552 picks · 1240 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
537 picks · 591 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
469 picks · 934 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1056 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 658 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 34%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total72% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:24
Team Spirit 64%Team Aster 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
51% · 69 games59% · 298 games
TimbersawSumaiL
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
50% · 281 game51% · 223 games
BroodmotherXxs
Broodmother
Snapfire
SnapfireCollapse
44% · 369 games53% · 329 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Rubick
RubickMira
45% · 463 games50% · 65 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
49% · 262 games49% · 529 games
UndyingFantasy
Undying
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Team Spirit 62%Team Aster 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
45% · 137 games54% · 249 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
50% · 331 game48% · 105 games
UnderlordXxs
Underlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
49% · 112 games51% · 157 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickMira
53% · 469 games55% · 234 games
TechiesBoBoKa
Techies
Lion
LionMiposhka
39% · 40 games52% · 344 games
UndyingFantasy
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 72%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2