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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Sexyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 9 games
33%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Malady · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Malady · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 7 games
43%

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 12 games
75%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 9 games
100%
Visage
Visagesignature
Nefrit · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 7 games
86%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
724 picks · 527 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
590 picks · 513 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
559 picks · 1091 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
555 picks · 1243 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
534 picks · 590 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
470 picks · 936 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1059 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
457 picks · 656 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:37
Natus Vincere 53%Team Sexy 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 50:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painmellojul
53% · 104 games51% · 127 games
Shadow FiendMirage
Shadow Fiend
Sven
SvenShigetsu
52% · 88 games45% · 148 games
Monkey King7jesu
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalik
47% · 156 games50% · 88 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Pugna
Pugnaxsvampire
55% · 129 games53% · 189 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Lich
LichMalady
44% · 138 games51% · 63 games
Shadow DemonHduo
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct26:13
Natus Vincere 52%Team Sexy 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerShigetsu
40% · 169 games62% · 143 games
Medusa7jesu
Medusa
Underlord
UnderlordMalik
46% · 103 games55% · 114 games
VisageNefrit
Visage
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
49% · 208 games56% · 246 games
Void SpiritMirage
Void Spirit
Pugna
PugnaMalady
46% · 172 games49% · 305 games
Enchantress9Class
Enchantress
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
45% · 449 games51% · 293 games
SilencerHduo
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2