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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

No games played over 6 months.

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 11 games
64%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
islA · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mark · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
730 picks · 542 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
600 picks · 517 bans
53%
Doom
Doom
560 picks · 1097 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
558 picks · 1254 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
526 picks · 582 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
473 picks · 941 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
467 picks · 1082 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
455 picks · 653 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:25
GRIN esports 42%CDUB Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 43:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Disruptor
DisruptorRein
52% · 421 game67% · 17 games
RazorDouble King
Razor
37% · 23 games
Spirit BreakerislA
Spirit Breaker
45% · 97 games
Ember SpiritMark
Ember Spirit
50% · 64 games
BatriderSanctified
Batrider
42% · 220 games
RubickDuster
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct24:38
GRIN esports 42%CDUB Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 52:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaRein
52% · 142 games21% · 30 games
BloodseekerDouble King
Bloodseeker
49% · 37 games
PangolierMark
Pangolier
59% · 30 games
Anti-MageislA
Anti-Mage
52% · 23 games
Crystal MaidenDuster
Crystal Maiden
58% · 22 games
LichSanctified
Lich
Game 3prediction correct12:51
GRIN esports 41%CDUB Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 28:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pugna
PugnaRein
51% · 115 games45% · 25 games
Monkey KingDouble King
Monkey King
57% · 3 games
AxeislA
Axe
48% · 40 games
Ember SpiritMark
Ember Spirit
55% · 18 games
Shadow DemonSanctified
Shadow Demon
45% · 29 games
UndyingDuster
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 67%
Series resultCDUB Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3