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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 12 games
75%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 8 games
100%
Visage
Visagesignature
Nefrit · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
57%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 7 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 6 games
83%

SIBE Team

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
38%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 4 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
erase · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
732 picks · 545 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 519 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
559 picks · 1097 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
554 picks · 1258 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
520 picks · 576 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
471 picks · 937 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1084 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
453 picks · 651 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 31%
Hero pool strength64% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:12
Team Sexy 65%SIBE Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherNefrit
48% · 66 games43% · 120 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Batrider
BatriderMirage
54% · 169 games46% · 138 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Riki
Riki7jesu
53% · 81 game48% · 140 games
Enchantressklassnokruto
Enchantress
Medusa
MedusaHduo
59% · 98 games55% · 56 games
Anti-Magevelheor
Anti-Mage
Clinkz
Clinkz9Class
46% · 40 games
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Team Sexy 64%SIBE Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
48% · 129 games49% · 81 game
Juggernautnesfeer
Juggernaut
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
49% · 194 games51% · 425 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
49% · 123 games54% · 144 games
Visageklassnokruto
Visage
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
49% · 94 games53% · 79 games
Bounty Huntervelheor
Bounty Hunter
Batrider
BatriderHduo
46% · 189 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 72%
Series resultTeam Sexy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2