Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nexus Titanswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
Nexus Titans
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 550 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 522 bans
Doom
562 picks · 1096 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1270 bans
Techies
517 picks · 574 bans
Pangolier
475 picks · 946 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1101 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 651 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:42
GRIN esports 64%Nexus Titans 36%
The model gave 64% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by Nexus Titans in 1:00:25.
Game 2prediction correct43:34
GRIN esports 64%Nexus Titans 36%
The model gave 64% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 47:55.
Game 3prediction missed26:29
GRIN esports 64%Nexus Titans 36%
The model gave 64% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by Nexus Titans in 30:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 64%
Series resultNexus Titans 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3