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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 48 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 44 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 37 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 37 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 35 games
40%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 26 games
58%

Team Lynx

Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 19 games
74%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 509 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
529 picks · 411 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
494 picks · 250 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 544 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
465 picks · 400 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 917 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 980 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
385 picks · 234 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total63% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:25
Rune Eaters 43%Team Lynx 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 47:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceryowaai
46% · 24 games51% · 419 games
Beastmastermellojul
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
47% · 355 games52% · 269 games
Ursa7jesu
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterAnkou
53% · 251 game49% · 378 games
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkani-san
54% · 494 games42% · 341 game
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
46% · 521 game58% · 238 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct14:45
Rune Eaters 43%Team Lynx 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenyowaai
59% · 140 games56% · 93 games
Faceless Void7jesu
Faceless Void
Batrider
BatriderAnkou
51% · 417 games41% · 324 games
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Pangolier
Viper
ViperEthereal
46% · 125 games50% · 295 games
Queen of Painmellojul
Queen of Pain
Tiny
Tinyani-san
52% · 428 games46% · 229 games
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerKidaro
55% · 153 games47% · 322 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct11:28
Rune Eaters 43%Team Lynx 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 30:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangeryowaai
56% · 163 games49% · 105 games
Luna7jesu
Luna
Viper
ViperEthereal
35% · 87 games55% · 286 games
Queen of Painmellojul
Queen of Pain
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
47% · 127 games56% · 342 games
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
Tuskani-san
51% · 351 game53% · 188 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixKidaro
42% · 233 games55% · 40 games
Techieskreker
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 63%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3