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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 29 games
48%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 25 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 24 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 22 games
68%

LGD Gaming

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 20 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 20 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 15 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
740 picks · 556 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 522 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
559 picks · 1270 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
559 picks · 1094 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
511 picks · 573 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
475 picks · 946 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1101 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 648 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:28
Evil Geniuses 51%LGD Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 15:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomWisper
54% · 216 games52% · 260 games
Marcishiro
Marci
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChris Luck
45% · 279 games49% · 100 games
Broodmotherniu
Broodmother
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePakazs
45% · 169 games49% · 208 games
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Primal Beast
Pugna
PugnaMatthew
51% · 88 games53% · 285 games
TechiespLAnet
Techies
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePanda
52% · 129 games50% · 28 games
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct30:18
Evil Geniuses 53%LGD Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 43:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautPakazs
47% · 77 games45% · 173 games
Naga Sirenshiro
Naga Siren
Broodmother
BroodmotherChris Luck
56% · 167 games49% · 144 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
48% · 70 games47% · 150 games
Marsniu
Mars
Monkey King
Monkey KingMatthew
54% · 185 games43% · 112 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
56% · 241 game53% · 161 game
TechiespLAnet
Techies
Game 3prediction missed6:19
Evil Geniuses 53%LGD Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
47% · 148 games49% · 198 games
Morphlingshiro
Morphling
Doom
DoomWisper
50% · 358 games45% · 135 games
WindrangerNothingToSay
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritChris Luck
53% · 255 games52% · 359 games
Beastmasterniu
Beastmaster
Pugna
PugnaMatthew
56% · 169 games49% · 276 games
TechiespLAnet
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
54% · 331 game44% · 293 games
Undyingy`
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 54%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3