ВКСЛ 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
УрФУwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
РМРТУ МИРЭАloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
УрФУ
No games played over 6 months.
РТУ МИРЭА
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
740 picks · 556 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 522 bans
Beastmaster
559 picks · 1270 bans
Doom
559 picks · 1094 bans
Techies
511 picks · 573 bans
Pangolier
475 picks · 946 bans
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1101 bans
Enchantress
461 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% УрФУ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% УрФУ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
УрФУ 70%РТУ МИРЭА 30%
The model gave 70% on УрФУ — the game was taken by УрФУ.
Game 2prediction correct
УрФУ 70%РТУ МИРЭА 30%
The model gave 70% on УрФУ — the game was taken by УрФУ.
Model check result
Model favoriteУрФУ · 70%
Series resultУрФУ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2