Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Disruptor
GH · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 12 games
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Shadow Demon
GH · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Into The Breach
Rubick
RESPECT · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 560 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 524 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1272 bans
Doom
558 picks · 1094 bans
Techies
510 picks · 574 bans
Pangolier
475 picks · 950 bans
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1106 bans
Enchantress
461 picks · 650 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Nigma Galaxy 53%Into The Breach 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYuma
Anti-MageNande
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Storm SpiritSupream^
LionGH
AxeXibbe
Witch DoctorKuroKy
TechiesRESPECT
Game 2prediction correct29:23
Nigma Galaxy 56%Into The Breach 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingYuma
JuggernautNande
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
DoomXibbe
SilencerKuroKy
WindrangerSupream^
IoGH
RubickRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 59%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2