Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TLThe Last Darkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Rubick
sheep · 11 games
Phoenix
sheep · 6 games
Tusksignature
sheep · 6 games
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
Shadow Demon
sheep · 3 games
Dark Willow
sheep · 2 games
The Last Dark
Beastmasteroften banned
Shining · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Echo · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Shining · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Echo · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
strawberry · 3 games
Void Spirit
poyoyo · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Shining · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
739 picks · 565 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 524 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1278 bans
Doom
556 picks · 1091 bans
Techies
507 picks · 566 bans
Pangolier
472 picks · 952 bans
Ember Spirit
461 picks · 1111 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 650 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength65% The Last Dark
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% The Last Dark
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:36
Supernova 41%The Last Dark 59%
The model gave 59% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by Supernova in 44:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Demonsheep
Slarkpoyoyo
60% · 6 games
BroodmotherEcho
50% · 6 games
TidehunterShining
34% · 28 games
Spirit Breakerstrawberry
Game 2prediction missed40:36
Supernova 38%The Last Dark 62%
The model gave 62% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by Supernova in 1:06:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Demonsheep
Juggernautpoyoyo
68% · 33 games
Void SpiritEcho
41% · 18 games
MagnusShining
56% · 23 games
Silencerstrawberry
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Dark · 67%
Series resultSupernova 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2