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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Qhaliloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
los moticucoswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Qhali

Snapfire
Snapfire
MonHty · 15 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 14 games
36%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 13 games
31%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 9 games
44%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Luis · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
57%
Lina
Lina
Cucahook · 7 games
57%

los moticucos

Rubick
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 8 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Accel · 7 games
57%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
sl4d1n- · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Accel · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Oscar · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Alone · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
739 picks · 572 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
607 picks · 524 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1284 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
555 picks · 1096 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
501 picks · 564 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
474 picks · 953 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
460 picks · 649 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% los moticucos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% los moticucos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:27
Qhali 39%los moticucos 61%
The model gave 61% on los moticucos — the game was taken by Qhali in 1:00:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritCucahook
50% · 141 game60% · 111 games
MedusaParker
Medusa
Windranger
WindrangerRobo-Z
42% · 99 games45% · 60 games
Bounty HunterAlone
Bounty Hunter
Clinkz
ClinkzMonHty
43% · 34 games51% · 25 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
Techies555k
55% · 174 games55% · 126 games
PugnaAccel
Pugna
47% · 126 games
Skywrath Magesl4d1n-
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct16:39
Qhali 41%los moticucos 59%
The model gave 59% on los moticucos — the game was taken by los moticucos in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCucahook
50% · 181 game54% · 20 games
Phantom AssassinParker
Phantom Assassin
Mars
MarsRobo-Z
49% · 157 games49% · 142 games
BatriderAlone
Batrider
Clinkz
ClinkzMonHty
49% · 42 games46% · 80 games
TimbersawOscar
Timbersaw
Venomancer
Venomancer555k
51% · 120 games59% · 95 games
TechiesAccel
Techies
44% · 163 games
Rubicksl4d1n-
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct23:28
Qhali 39%los moticucos 61%
The model gave 61% on los moticucos — the game was taken by los moticucos in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCucahook
47% · 142 games49% · 31 game
Phantom AssassinParker
Phantom Assassin
Batrider
BatriderRobo-Z
56% · 215 games50% · 91 game
Shadow FiendAlone
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMonHty
51% · 91 game52% · 120 games
Primal BeastOscar
Primal Beast
Jakiro
Jakiro555k
47% · 61 game46% · 97 games
Spirit Breakersl4d1n-
Spirit Breaker
50% · 170 games
TechiesAccel
Techies
Model check result
Model favoritelos moticucos · 69%
Series resultlos moticucos 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3