ВКСЛ 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
УрФУwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ППНИПУloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
УрФУ
No games played over 6 months.
ПНИПУ
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 574 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 523 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1284 bans
Doom
551 picks · 1097 bans
Techies
499 picks · 563 bans
Pangolier
476 picks · 951 bans
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1111 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 646 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% УрФУ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% УрФУ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
УрФУ 71%ПНИПУ 29%
The model gave 71% on УрФУ — the game was taken by УрФУ.
Game 2prediction correct
УрФУ 71%ПНИПУ 29%
The model gave 71% on УрФУ — the game was taken by УрФУ.
Model check result
Model favoriteУрФУ · 71%
Series resultУрФУ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2