?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 23 games
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 18 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 18 games
83%

Team Aster

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
Xxs · 25 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 25 games
72%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 23 games
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 20 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
740 picks · 576 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 523 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
558 picks · 1284 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
549 picks · 1095 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
499 picks · 561 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
475 picks · 952 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
456 picks · 645 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:11
Talon Esports 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 45:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
52% · 235 games55% · 102 games
LunaMonet
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
45% · 370 games56% · 254 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
49% · 211 games54% · 374 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageQ
46% · 153 games46% · 390 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickOli
50% · 552 games46% · 401 game
UndyingFantasy
Undying
Game 2prediction missed34:25
Talon Esports 49%Team Aster 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 52:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancer23savage
46% · 87 games52% · 350 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
53% · 392 games42% · 150 games
WindrangerMonet
Windranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
54% · 209 games58% · 217 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderQ
55% · 312 games51% · 414 games
UndyingFantasy
Undying
Rubick
RubickOli
47% · 497 games42% · 366 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 53%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2