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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 24 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 13 games
54%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 12 games
42%

HULIGANI

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 45 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 35 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 31 game
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
595 picks · 516 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
536 picks · 412 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
492 picks · 542 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
491 picks · 251 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 405 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 918 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 990 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
385 picks · 234 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total59% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:11
Nemiga Gaming 46%HULIGANI 54%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeselfhate
46% · 258 games57% · 135 games
Kezssnovv1
Kez
Beastmaster
Beastmasteryoung G
44% · 408 games46% · 109 games
Dark SeerCorrupted
Dark Seer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCovisnine
52% · 179 games46% · 373 games
PangolierMirage
Pangolier
Techies
Techiesariel
63% · 41 game49% · 166 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixVaniLLl
55% · 278 games49% · 381 game
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct29:36
Nemiga Gaming 43%HULIGANI 57%
The model gave 57% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 53:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertaselfhate
47% · 251 game57% · 314 games
Windrangerssnovv1
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierCovisnine
42% · 418 games55% · 474 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Slardar
Slardaryoung G
53% · 375 games52% · 390 games
BatriderCorrupted
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixVaniLLl
44% · 333 games54% · 532 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Tusk
Tuskariel
47% · 599 games49% · 266 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct12:31
Nemiga Gaming 42%HULIGANI 58%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerselfhate
53% · 27 games55% · 177 games
Monkey Kingssnovv1
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityoung G
52% · 421 game51% · 407 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCovisnine
46% · 160 games48% · 239 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroVaniLLl
45% · 523 games52% · 340 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Techies
Techiesariel
46% · 64 games54% · 32 games
OracleRESPECT
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 59%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3