Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Limitloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TLThe Last Darkwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Limit
Tusk
Yds · 17 games
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 10 games
Silenceroften banned
Victoria · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 8 games
Rubick
cxk · 8 games
Tiny
Yds · 7 games
Lichsignature
Victoria · 6 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 6 games
The Last Dark
Queen of Painoften banned
Echo · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shining · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
strawberry · 3 games
Void Spirit
poyoyo · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Shining · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Shining · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
739 picks · 582 bans
Disruptor
610 picks · 524 bans
Beastmaster
553 picks · 1296 bans
Doom
552 picks · 1100 bans
Techies
494 picks · 555 bans
Pangolier
469 picks · 955 bans
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1118 bans
Enchantress
451 picks · 646 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 73%
Hero pool strength60% The Last Dark
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% The Last Dark
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
Limit 22%The Last Dark 78%
The model gave 78% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 35:05.
Game 2prediction correct6:26
Limit 22%The Last Dark 78%
The model gave 78% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 21:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Dark · 78%
Series resultThe Last Dark 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2