Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nexus Titansloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 10 games
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 10 games
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 10 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 8 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
Queen of Painsignature
high_shaggy · 7 games
Nexus Titans
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 584 bans
Disruptor
608 picks · 524 bans
Doom
555 picks · 1100 bans
Beastmaster
553 picks · 1298 bans
Techies
495 picks · 552 bans
Pangolier
469 picks · 955 bans
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1124 bans
Enchantress
452 picks · 646 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
The Cut 61%Nexus Titans 39%
The model gave 61% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 26:34.
Game 2prediction correct34:13
The Cut 61%Nexus Titans 39%
The model gave 61% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 30:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 61%
Series resultThe Cut 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2