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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Breeki Cheekiwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MODUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Breeki Cheeki

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 7 games
71%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
спортик · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muertasignature
DarkLord^ · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
спортик · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 5 games
60%

MODUS

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
elmo^^ · 6 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
prblms · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 4 games
25%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
elmo^^ · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 4 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 4 games
25%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
xn丶e · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
597 picks · 516 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 411 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 540 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
488 picks · 248 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 405 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 915 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 992 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
387 picks · 234 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Breeki Cheeki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Breeki Cheeki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
Breeki Cheeki 62%MODUS 38%
The model gave 62% on Breeki Cheeki — the game was taken by MODUS in 57:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingDarkLord^
53% · 263 games47% · 153 games
Ursabottega
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritспортик
53% · 461 game50% · 298 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMiyaoo
60% · 11 games51% · 126 games
Underlordelmo^^
Underlord
Io
Ioasdekor_r
36% · 43 games54% · 232 games
Hoodwinkmrls
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOneJey
48% · 156 games50% · 125 games
Rubickprblms
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct21:9
Breeki Cheeki 60%MODUS 40%
The model gave 60% on Breeki Cheeki — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki in 29:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperспортик
51% · 58 games55% · 289 games
Beastmasterelmo^^
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyDarkLord^
49% · 406 games55% · 306 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierMiyaoo
47% · 345 games51% · 111 games
Lifestealerbottega
Lifestealer
Lion
LionOneJey
55% · 112 games44% · 70 games
Grimstrokeprblms
Grimstroke
Io
Ioasdekor_r
41% · 29 games47% · 174 games
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct27:6
Breeki Cheeki 61%MODUS 39%
The model gave 61% on Breeki Cheeki — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingDarkLord^
52% · 144 games55% · 82 games
Faceless Voidbottega
Faceless Void
Beastmaster
Beastmasterспортик
43% · 250 games49% · 254 games
Bristlebackelmo^^
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderMiyaoo
50% · 208 games47% · 56 games
Death Prophetxn丶e
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOneJey
44% · 82 games54% · 146 games
Rubickmrls
Rubick
Lich
Lichasdekor_r
43% · 18 games60% · 164 games
Enchantressprblms
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteBreeki Cheeki · 69%
Series resultBreeki Cheeki 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3