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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 15 games
27%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 12 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Qupe · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mo13ei · 9 games
67%
Silencer
Silencersignature
jmn- · 8 games
75%

Ancient Tribe

Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 16 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 12 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MikSa` · 12 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
741 picks · 585 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
609 picks · 524 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
554 picks · 1100 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
552 picks · 1298 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
495 picks · 552 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
469 picks · 955 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1124 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
452 picks · 646 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% IVY
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:26
IVY 51%Ancient Tribe 49%
The model gave 51% on IVY — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMoonlight
54% · 254 games51% · 112 games
TimbersawMo13ei
Timbersaw
Lycan
LycanOtaker
57% · 150 games41% · 79 games
Drow Rangerlil pleb
Drow Ranger
Broodmother
BroodmotherMikSa`
53% · 156 games47% · 52 games
UnderlordWuiter
Underlord
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerrue
52% · 112 games47% · 357 games
RubickAlexxo
Rubick
Pugna
Pugnajmn-
52% · 117 games46% · 189 games
UndyingLeBronDota
Undying
Game 2prediction missed21:30
IVY 54%Ancient Tribe 46%
The model gave 54% on IVY — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 1:08:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaOtaker
60% · 147 games45% · 63 games
Juggernautlil pleb
Juggernaut
Doom
DoomMikSa`
56% · 308 games42% · 330 games
Ember SpiritMo13ei
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
51% · 193 games48% · 387 games
BeastmasterWuiter
Beastmaster
Chen
Chenjmn-
67% · 99 games41% · 111 games
PugnaLeBronDota
Pugna
Mirana
Miranarue
55% · 307 games37% · 163 games
Skywrath MageAlexxo
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 50%
Series resultAncient Tribe 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2