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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 56 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 30 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 27 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 25 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 22 games
73%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 20 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 20 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 15 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
743 picks · 593 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
609 picks · 528 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
553 picks · 1098 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
551 picks · 1306 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
489 picks · 552 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
470 picks · 952 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1129 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
451 picks · 644 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:46
Team Spirit 60%LGD Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYatoro
55% · 158 games54% · 54 games
Lunashiro
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawLarl
50% · 177 games41% · 239 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
50% · 119 games48% · 76 games
Marsniu
Mars
Techies
TechiesMira
56% · 170 games47% · 153 games
Skywrath MagepLAnet
Skywrath Mage
Pugna
PugnaMiposhka
59% · 87 games45% · 189 games
Undyingy`
Undying
Game 2prediction missed6:25
Team Spirit 61%LGD Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
61% · 70 games49% · 140 games
Broodmotherniu
Broodmother
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
54% · 166 games61% · 37 games
Clinkzshiro
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
53% · 394 games42% · 491 game
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
52% · 275 games50% · 397 games
Undyingy`
Undying
Rubick
RubickMira
47% · 626 games43% · 466 games
SnapfirepLAnet
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2