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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 49 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 38 games
63%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 36 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
47%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 30 games
77%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 27 games
56%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
56%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 24 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 13 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 12 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 12 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
601 picks · 517 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 410 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
489 picks · 541 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 245 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 407 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 912 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 997 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
387 picks · 234 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total60% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:31
Zero Tenacity 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:01:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezKami
52% · 114 games50% · 303 games
Beastmasterselfhate
Beastmaster
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNefrit
43% · 125 games50% · 337 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
56% · 235 games67% · 5 games
Legion CommanderCovisnine
Legion Commander
Ringmaster
RingmasterdEsire
53% · 296 games53% · 152 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
46% · 245 games47% · 218 games
DisruptorVaniLLl
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed21:34
Zero Tenacity 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaKami
45% · 145 games52% · 312 games
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
49% · 251 game54% · 34 games
Lone Druidselfhate
Lone Druid
Doom
DoomNefrit
50% · 110 games52% · 148 games
Primal BeastCovisnine
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
46% · 124 games54% · 76 games
GrimstrokeVaniLLl
Grimstroke
Ringmaster
RingmasterdEsire
52% · 142 games47% · 202 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct40:16
Zero Tenacity 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKami
52% · 248 games47% · 103 games
Lifestealerselfhate
Lifestealer
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
52% · 195 games52% · 66 games
Death Prophetyoung G
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
47% · 299 games50% · 227 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Silencer
SilencerMoOz
53% · 111 games53% · 374 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Muerta
MuertadEsire
49% · 164 games47% · 247 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 60%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3