Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionNnoMERCYloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lavawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
noMERCY
Treant Protector
555k · 11 games
Tiny
Zxca · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
drakeel · 7 games
Visagesignature
drakeel · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
555k · 6 games
Clockwerk
555k · 5 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
Lava
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 11 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 9 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 6 games
Disruptorsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
746 picks · 595 bans
Disruptor
609 picks · 529 bans
Doom
552 picks · 1097 bans
Beastmaster
549 picks · 1316 bans
Techies
486 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
469 picks · 953 bans
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1138 bans
Enchantress
450 picks · 642 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:33
noMERCY 35%Lava 65%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMnz
Medusapayk
MagnusMr.Jeans
UnderlordHermit
WindrangerBenjaz
Spirit BreakerJimmyCoff666
TuskElmisho
OracleYadomi
Game 2prediction correct18:36
noMERCY 35%Lava 65%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 45:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMnz
Naga Sirenpayk
LeshracMr.Jeans
UnderlordHermit
DoomBenjaz
UndyingJimmyCoff666
BatriderElmisho
Treant ProtectorYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 76%
Series resultLava 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2