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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
x5 Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfire
KJ · 13 games
31%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 8 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Kingrd · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
4dr · 6 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
KJ · 6 games
50%

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
FCR · 5 games
20%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
FCR · 5 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Benny · 4 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Wij · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
749 picks · 596 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
609 picks · 531 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
552 picks · 1095 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
549 picks · 1318 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
485 picks · 541 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
469 picks · 955 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1138 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
449 picks · 642 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:30
Keyd Stars 56%x5 Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCostabile
53% · 112 games45% · 163 games
TerrorbladeBenny
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain4nalog
55% · 130 games48% · 312 games
BatriderTavo
Batrider
Magnus
MagnusFCR
50% · 106 games46% · 19 games
Witch DoctorWij
Witch Doctor
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterKingrd
55% · 23 games
Techies
TechiesKJ
55% · 123 games
Game 2prediction correct29:9
Keyd Stars 53%x5 Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 24:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw4nalog
52% · 98 games54% · 153 games
Templar AssassinBenny
Templar Assassin
Abaddon
AbaddonCostabile
38% · 28 games48% · 154 games
MagnusTavo
Magnus
Windranger
WindrangerFCR
54% · 72 games50% · 82 games
VenomancerWij
Venomancer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKingrd
43% · 84 games
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
56% · 107 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 55%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2