Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qhaliloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Mirana
sl4d1n- · 8 games
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 7 games
Silenceroften banned
Accel · 7 games
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
Undyingoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
Clockwerk
Zxca · 5 games
Snapfire
Oscar · 5 games
Qhali
Snapfire
MonHty · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 12 games
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 9 games
Treant Protector
Luis · 9 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
Lina
Cucahook · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
751 picks · 596 bans
Disruptor
609 picks · 532 bans
Doom
552 picks · 1093 bans
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1318 bans
Techies
483 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
469 picks · 955 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1139 bans
Enchantress
449 picks · 643 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 27%
Hero pool strength52% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
NoPing VPN 55%Qhali 45%
The model gave 55% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 27:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinhFn
Troll WarlordCucahook
Underlorddrakeel
Dragon KnightRobo-Z
LichYor
Beastmasterdrakesh1t
Keeper of the LightZxca
TechiesMonHty
44% · 108 games
Undying555k
Game 2prediction correct35:31
NoPing VPN 53%Qhali 47%
The model gave 53% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 43:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunahFn
SvenCucahook
Underlorddrakeel
Ember SpiritRobo-Z
EnchantressYor
Techies555k
Keeper of the LightZxca
ClinkzMonHty
53% · 85 games
Magnusdrakesh1t
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 60%
Series resultNoPing VPN 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2