DreamLeague Season 20 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:1series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Evil Geniuseswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 13 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 11 games
Mirana
Puppey · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Armel · 9 games
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 8 games
Evil Geniuses
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
Rubick
Matthew · 29 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 23 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 23 games
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
751 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
612 picks · 534 bans
Doom
552 picks · 1093 bans
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1328 bans
Techies
480 picks · 539 bans
Pangolier
470 picks · 962 bans
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1150 bans
Enchantress
450 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:40
Team Secret 33%Evil Geniuses 67%
The model gave 67% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusArmel
TimbersawChris Luck
Void SpiritCrystallis
Faceless VoidPakazs
Winter WyvernFbz
VenomancerWisper
SnapfirePuppey
WindrangerMatthew
Monkey Kingyamich
SilencerPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 76%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1