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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Evil Geniuseswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 32 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 30 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 21 game
52%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
67%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 29 games
48%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 23 games
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 23 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
751 picks · 609 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
612 picks · 534 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
552 picks · 1092 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
547 picks · 1329 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
479 picks · 538 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
470 picks · 961 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1150 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
450 picks · 644 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:35
Tundra Esports 60%Evil Geniuses 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 35:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
49% · 203 games52% · 136 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
46% · 9 games41% · 98 games
Shadow FiendChris Luck
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
53% · 80 games46% · 227 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageImmersion
54% · 104 games55% · 36 games
Bounty HunterMatthew
Bounty Hunter
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
49% · 151 game53% · 50 games
OraclePanda
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 72%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1