DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 22 games
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 623 bans
Disruptor
614 picks · 535 bans
Beastmaster
551 picks · 1337 bans
Doom
550 picks · 1084 bans
Techies
474 picks · 528 bans
Pangolier
471 picks · 967 bans
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1168 bans
Enchantress
451 picks · 639 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:22
Entity 38%Team Aster 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:07.
Game 2prediction correct6:36
Entity 38%Team Aster 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 62%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2