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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 19 games
37%
Mirana
Mirana
LionaX · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
LionaX · 12 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 10 games
0%
Undying
Undyingsignature
LionaX · 10 games
60%

Polaris Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Bok · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 14 games
36%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 10 games
60%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
80%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boomy · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
750 picks · 621 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
613 picks · 534 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
549 picks · 1332 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
546 picks · 1080 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
471 picks · 520 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
467 picks · 965 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1164 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
447 picks · 223 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total76% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:32
UD Vessuwan 38%Polaris Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 54:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKNP
66% · 76 games35% · 40 games
AbaddonAkashi
Abaddon
Pangolier
PangolierBeebie
57% · 230 games40% · 173 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Techies
Techiesboombell
57% · 192 games43% · 186 games
Enchantresscml
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLionaX
53% · 54 games42% · 40 games
Legion CommanderEnryu
Legion Commander
44% · 113 games
Spirit BreakerBoomy
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct10:34
UD Vessuwan 34%Polaris Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 22:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarBeebie
64% · 6 games46% · 43 games
AlchemistAkashi
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void SpiritKNP
50% · 131 game48% · 38 games
Dark SeerEnryu
Dark Seer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerboombell
52% · 96 games52% · 51 game
Queen of PainMac
Queen of Pain
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLionaX
49% · 75 games49% · 144 games
BatriderBoomy
Batrider
50% · 32 games
Dark Willowcml
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 76%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2