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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 19 games
79%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 18 games
67%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 39 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 25 games
52%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
72%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 16 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 622 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
614 picks · 534 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1329 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
543 picks · 1078 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
468 picks · 516 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
466 picks · 964 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1166 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
447 picks · 638 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 34%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total74% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:38
Team Liquid 66%TSM 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:06:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
55% · 121 game61% · 61 game
Anti-MageTimado
Anti-Mage
Lone Druid
Lone DruidNisha
67% · 54 games37% · 77 games
Winter Wyvernbryle-
Winter Wyvern
Earthshaker
Earthshakerzai
56% · 92 games43% · 169 games
Batriderkasane
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOmaR
50% · 303 games41% · 198 games
Ember SpiritAri
Ember Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
50% · 97 games48% · 162 games
MiranaWhitemon
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct38:39
Team Liquid 63%TSM 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 58:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautTA2000
55% · 62 games64% · 124 games
MedusaTimado
Medusa
Doom
Doomzai
47% · 289 games47% · 295 games
Ember Spiritbryle-
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireNisha
41% · 278 games55% · 339 games
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
45% · 81 game50% · 82 games
WindrangerAri
Windranger
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightOmaR
44% · 150 games52% · 20 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 74%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2