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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IHC Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
88%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 5 games
40%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 5 games
20%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 4 games
0%

Neon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Hated · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ken · 6 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 4 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hated · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 625 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
612 picks · 535 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1336 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
544 picks · 1075 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
468 picks · 510 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
466 picks · 965 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1168 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
447 picks · 641 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% IHC Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:39
IHC Esports 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 48:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage423
54% · 32 games45% · 47 games
AbaddonFortuneSoul
Abaddon
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSancity
57% · 103 games52% · 149 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Visage
Visageeleven
55% · 33 games46% · 95 games
Spirit BreakerHishge
Spirit Breaker
Dark Willow
Dark Willowace12
50% · 40 games
Silencer
SilencerSe
44% · 83 games
Game 2prediction missed31:25
IHC Esports 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 39:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaweleven
55% · 132 games47% · 47 games
Phantom LancerFortuneSoul
Phantom Lancer
Magnus
Magnus423
65% · 86 games47% · 154 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSancity
47% · 119 games42% · 310 games
RubickHishge
Rubick
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerace12
54% · 65 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageSe
55% · 109 games
Game 3prediction correct10:39
IHC Esports 48%Neon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
Magnus423
52% · 63 games50% · 119 games
AlchemistFortuneSoul
Alchemist
Timbersaw
Timbersaweleven
50% · 75 games47% · 154 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSancity
49% · 88 games55% · 51 game
EarthshakerHishge
Earthshaker
Dark Willow
Dark Willowace12
46% · 29 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageSe
50% · 69 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 52%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3