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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 45 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 31 game
68%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 31 game
74%
Kez
Kezsignature
miCKe · 30 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
tOfu · 25 games
72%

BETBOOM TEAM

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kataomi · 41 game
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 37 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 34 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 28 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 24 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
603 picks · 522 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 415 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
488 picks · 243 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
485 picks · 542 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 410 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 914 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1000 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
387 picks · 236 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 7
Model total56% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:11
Team Liquid 51%BETBOOM TEAM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
52% · 243 games53% · 276 games
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinymiCKe
44% · 413 games53% · 183 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
49% · 144 games53% · 626 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixtOfu
48% · 187 games48% · 221 game
RubickSave-
Rubick
Tusk
TuskEkki
52% · 348 games46% · 29 games
LichKataomi
Lich
Game 2prediction missed10:27
Team Liquid 56%BETBOOM TEAM 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 46:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistmiCKe
50% · 33 games45% · 47 games
KezKiritych
Kez
Largo
LargoAce
56% · 72 games46% · 94 games
Queen of PaingpK~
Queen of Pain
Huskar
HuskarNisha
58% · 87 games52% · 72 games
TidehunterMieRo
Tidehunter
Oracle
OracletOfu
53% · 29 gameslittle data
Winter WyvernKataomi
Winter Wyvern
Lion
LionEkki
43% · 73 games47% · 81 game
WindrangerSave-
Windranger
Game 3prediction missed17:42
Team Liquid 51%BETBOOM TEAM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 42:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
51% · 97 games54% · 279 games
Queen of PaingpK~
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
49% · 173 games50% · 131 game
KezKiritych
Kez
Tiny
TinymiCKe
48% · 263 games56% · 222 games
TidehunterMieRo
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixtOfu
44% · 215 games47% · 162 games
RubickSave-
Rubick
Lion
LionEkki
49% · 59 games53% · 13 games
Winter WyvernKataomi
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 56%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3