DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 22 games
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
756 picks · 625 bans
Disruptor
611 picks · 535 bans
Beastmaster
545 picks · 1332 bans
Doom
542 picks · 1070 bans
Techies
466 picks · 500 bans
Pangolier
464 picks · 965 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1168 bans
Enchantress
445 picks · 639 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:30
beastcoast 45%Team Aster 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:26.
Game 2prediction correct25:20
beastcoast 45%Team Aster 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 55%
Accuracy by game2 of 2