DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 54 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 24 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Magnussignature
Collapse · 20 games
Tundra Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
Doomsignature
33 · 31 game
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 30 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
754 picks · 627 bans
Disruptor
610 picks · 536 bans
Beastmaster
540 picks · 1331 bans
Doom
540 picks · 1068 bans
Pangolier
464 picks · 960 bans
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1169 bans
Techies
462 picks · 496 bans
Enchantress
444 picks · 637 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:30
Team Spirit 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautYatoro
BloodseekerSkiter
WindrangerLarl
Doom33
Spirit BreakerCollapse
Void SpiritMalr1ne
LichMiposhka
MiranaImmersion
Shadow DemonMira
SilencerSneyking
Game 2prediction missed26:10
Team Spirit 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonYatoro
Batrider33
Ember SpiritLarl
Void SpiritMalr1ne
BeastmasterCollapse
BloodseekerSkiter
MiranaMira
RubickImmersion
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2