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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 20 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 20 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 38 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 23 games
52%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
72%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 16 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
754 picks · 627 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
610 picks · 536 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
540 picks · 1331 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
540 picks · 1068 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
464 picks · 960 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1169 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
462 picks · 496 bans
56%
Enchantress
Enchantress
444 picks · 637 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:27
LGD Gaming 54%TSM 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by TSM in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
56% · 113 games52% · 131 game
BloodseekerTimado
Bloodseeker
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
51% · 86 games52% · 327 games
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
43% · 161 game41% · 108 games
Windrangerbryle-
Windranger
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
47% · 183 games54% · 162 games
TechiesAri
Techies
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
53% · 258 games51% · 73 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Game 2prediction correct25:5
LGD Gaming 57%TSM 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 22:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
61% · 127 games49% · 256 games
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
46% · 382 games39% · 106 games
Windrangerbryle-
Windranger
Axe
Axeniu
53% · 35 games52% · 39 games
AbaddonTimado
Abaddon
Techies
TechiespLAnet
57% · 265 games45% · 376 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
53% · 42 games47% · 74 games
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2